El Nino set to be strongest in living memory, Met Office warns

The El Nino event developing across the Pacific Ocean is projected to become the most powerful in living memory, according to a stark warning issued by the UK Met Office.

This potent natural climate phenomenon drives up global temperatures and elevates the risks of extreme weather events worldwide. Combined with human-induced climate change, the Met Office warns that it is very likely to push 2027 past previous benchmarks to become the hottest year on record.

Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, emphasized the extreme nature of the current forecasts, noting the unprecedented intensity of the signals observed.

El Nino occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts for around a year. Trade winds weakening across the Pacific allow warm water to spread eastward, releasing heat into the atmosphere. Scientists declare an event when key Pacific temperatures rise 0.5C above average, whereas current measurements already exceed 2C above normal.

"We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event"

Prof Adam Scaife, UK Met Office

Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event

Evidence of disruption is already emerging globally, including below-average monsoon rains in India and suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, where only three named storms have formed so far. The UK and north-west Europe may also face a wetter and stormier autumn.

Dr Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office, noted that significant heat released from the ocean typically drives up global average temperatures in the calendar year following the winter peak, making 2027 the prime candidate to break temperature records.

Source: BBC Science & Environment