A Look Behind the Truth of Tesla's Driverless Taxis: Actual Mileage Contradicts the Hype
Elon Musk's claims regarding the progress of Tesla's driverless taxi service are facing concerning realities, including plateauing mileage, a reduced number of vehicles, and safety questions.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
- Tesla Robotaxi's total mileage stands at 380,000 miles, significantly less than Waymo's 4 million miles per week.
- The number of unsupervised autonomous vehicles has dropped to just 16 in Austin, 4 in Dallas, and 1 in Houston.
- Elon Musk affirmed that they are accelerating the service expansion as quickly as possible while prioritizing safety.
During the recent earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk attempted to present a positive outlook on the Robotaxi project, stating that the service is expanding to new cities, driving distances are increasing, and more users are experiencing unsupervised autonomous vehicles.
However, Musk's enthusiasm seemed to wane slightly as he tried to temper expectations for the project's future, stating during the meeting that the company is trying to scale the Robotaxi service as fast as humanly possible while ensuring it hurts no one, or at the very least, does not run over any pets.
Yet, Musk's assertions of growth contradict the reality on the ground, as mileage numbers remain relatively flat, the number of vehicles in the system appears to be declining, and even though Tesla executives claim zero notable accidents, the technology's safety remains a question mark.
Meanwhile, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla's head of artificial intelligence, stated that the company's unsupervised robotaxis have driven a total of 380,000 miles across 6 cities in 2 states, with Musk adding that driving distance is increasing at a rate of 10 percent per week.
Tesla's camera-only approach has consistently been scrutinized by analysts. Because it avoids Lidar or Radar sensors used by competitors like Waymo, the heavy burden of image processing in complex weather or environments falls entirely on Tesla's AI system, which may be why expansion must proceed with extreme caution.
Elluswamy took the opportunity to criticize competitors using Lidar sensors, noting that in the past, experts claimed using Lidar, radar, high-definition maps, and various equipment was necessary for safe driving, but Tesla has proven it can achieve safe, convenient, and accessible driving autonomy with just cameras.
Nevertheless, the figures reported by Tesla contradict these claims. Waymo, which uses Lidar and radar alongside cameras, achieves around 4 million miles per week, making Tesla's total cumulative mileage after a year of operation less than 10 percent of that figure. This led James Picariello, a senior analyst at BNP Paribas Equity Research, to note in a client note that it is a startling regression.
“We are going as fast as humanly possible to scale Robotaxi while trying to make sure we don't hurt anyone, and ideally not even run over a pet.”
Elon Musk
Regarding the operating vehicles, data from Robotaxi Tracker, a crowdsourced data compilation, indicates that Tesla currently has only 16 unsupervised autonomous vehicles in Austin, 4 in Dallas, and 1 in Houston. Elluswamy explained that the reason for expanding to other cities rather than increasing the vehicle count in Austin—the first city launched last year—was to prove the company's stack is universal and works well across various cities.
Additionally, state regulations remain another limiting factor. Andrew Percoco, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, raised this issue during the meeting regarding new state-level regulations, such as New Jersey considering legislation to ban driverless taxis that lack multi-sensor suites.
Source: The Verge
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