Can Chelsea repeat history and surge from 10th to the Premier League title?
Analyzing Chelsea's potential to challenge for the Premier League trophy under Xabi Alonso after finishing tenth in consecutive eras.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
- Chelsea finished 10th in the latest campaign, mirroring their position a decade ago under Antonio Conte.
- Playing only once a week without European football provides a major scheduling advantage.
- New manager Xabi Alonso previously guided Bayer Leverkusen to an unbeaten Bundesliga title.
A decade ago, Chelsea wrapped up a disappointing Premier League campaign in 10th place before stunning the English football world by lifting the championship trophy the very next year under incoming manager Antonio Conte. Now, following another mid-table finish in 10th position without European fixtures and with Xabi Alonso taking charge as the new head coach, supporters are left wondering if the Blues can pull off the exact same feat.
Chelsea's record for the 2025-26 season bears a striking resemblance to their campaign a decade prior under interim manager Guus Hiddink. With precisely one more goal scored, one more conceded, an identical goal difference, and a mere two-point increase compared to 2015-16, the parallels are hard to ignore. Back then, very few pundits would have predicted that a squad finishing 31 points adrift of champions Leicester City—and below clubs like Southampton, West Ham, and Stoke—would be holding the trophy aloft twelve months later.
The turning point during Conte's tenure arrived after a 3-0 defeat away at Arsenal during their sixth fixture, prompting the Italian tactician to shift his formation to a back three. The tactical adjustment unleashed an incredible 13-game winning streak that ultimately secured the title with 93 points. It is a tactical blueprint that Alonso could successfully replicate at Stamford Bridge, given that his Bayer Leverkusen side captured the 2023-24 Bundesliga crown without a single defeat while utilizing a three-at-the-back system.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
Underlying expected goals data reveals that Chelsea's primary weakness last season was not chance creation, but rather their finishing efficiency. The team underperformed relative to their expected goals by 8 goals, netting only 58 times from an xG of 66.3. The vast majority of this scoring drought occurred during a catastrophic five-game losing streak in March and April under Liam Rosenior, where the club failed to score in five consecutive league matches for the first time in 114 years, ultimately costing Rosenior his job.
Nevertheless, missing out on European competition could serve as a blessing in disguise for the squad's physical management. Historical data on the Premier League's traditional 'Big Six' clubs shows that teams free from European distractions generally experience a noticeable upturn in domestic form, jumping an average of five places and collecting 16 more points than the previous term. Liverpool famously came within a whisker of winning the league in 2013-14 under similar conditions, while Manchester United reaped the benefits last season by adding 29 points to their tally.
Xabi Alonso has already demonstrated a proven capacity for rapid transformations. After taking over Leverkusen in October 2022 when the club sat in the relegation zone, he steered them to a sixth-place finish with 50 points—matching Chelsea's exact tally in both 2015-16 and last season—before orchestrating a historic 40-point improvement in his first full campaign. While only two clubs in Premier League history have ever jumped from outside the top three to champions the following year, the path is wide open for the Blues to attempt the impossible once more.
Source: BBC Sport
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