El Niño 2026: Met Office warns of stormy UK autumn and winter
A developing El Niño could bring a stormy autumn and early winter to the UK, with forecasters warning of unprecedented scale in modern climate records.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
- El Niño is developing across the Pacific Ocean, altering global wind patterns.
- The Met Office warns of an increased chance of wet and stormy weather in the UK for November and December.
- The scale of the current developing El Niño is unprecedented in modern climate records.
- While bringing relief to drought-stricken areas, storms also carry severe risks of flooding and power cuts.
The El Niño phenomenon is currently developing across the Pacific Ocean, thousands of miles away from the UK. While its most profound impacts are usually centered around Peru and Ecuador with risks of flooding and landslides, and Australia facing droughts and wildfires, the disruption to global wind patterns causes ripples across the entire planet.
The Met Office states that the UK weather is likely to be affected, pointing to a growing chance that autumn and early winter will turn wet and stormy. No two El Niño events are identical, meaning that while certain weather probabilities increase, nothing is guaranteed.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the Met Office, noted that the scale of the growing climate pattern is unprecedented in modern records. As it approaches its peak by the end of 2026, global influences will continue to intensify.
"I have not seen an event like this developing in our forecasts before."
Forecasters are already observing signals for increased rainfall and storminess across the UK during autumn, particularly extending into November and December. Although the UK has experienced its hottest summer on record alongside widespread drought, bringing relief through rain, climate change simultaneously increases the likelihood of intense downpours and subsequent flooding risks.
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This thermodynamic shift alters atmospheric circulation and jet stream positions globally, frequently steering Atlantic storms toward Western Europe and the British Isles during late autumn and winter seasons.
Historically, the 2015/2016 winter coincided with a very strong El Niño, delivering a succession of major storms and record-breaking extreme flooding. However, links to late winter cold spells remain mixed; while the severe 2009/2010 Big Freeze coincided with El Niño, the 2006/2007 winter proved unseasonably warm under similar conditions, leaving long-range forecasts uncertain.
Source: BBC Science & Environment
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