Met Office forecasts wetter and warmer autumn 2026 from El Niño
The Met Office warns that a strengthening El Niño will likely bring a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn to the UK, elevating flood risks.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
- The Met Office forecasts a wetter and warmer autumn for the UK.
- A strengthening El Niño drives stormier conditions later in the season.
- UK sea surface temperatures have risen up to 5C above normal.
- Increased rainfall aids drought recovery but raises flooding risks.
The United Kingdom is bracing for a wetter and warmer-than-normal weather pattern this autumn, driven by a strengthening El Niño phenomenon, according to the latest forecasts released by the Met Office. The climate driver, projected to be one of the strongest on record, is set to trigger a shift toward stormier conditions across the region, particularly as the season progresses past November.
This major climate anomaly, characterized by the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, continues to intensify and is expected to peak during November or December as a historic event. However, Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk has cautioned that while this event may rank among the most intense El Niño episodes recorded, it does not automatically translate into severe regional impacts for the UK due to other contributing meteorological factors.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
In terms of regional water resources, the wetter outlook for late autumn and winter will offer much-needed relief to parched regions experiencing dry conditions. Despite recent unsettled weather, the Environment Agency (EA) National Drought Group noted during a meeting on Thursday that official drought statuses remain unchanged. Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the EA, emphasized that drought recovery is a protracted process that concludes only when reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater supplies are fully restored. Nevertheless, the heavy rainfall risks triggering another cycle of extreme weather whiplash, mirroring the 2025 pattern when a record-shattering hot summer was abruptly followed by destructive storms and floods.
"The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events."
Ian Lisk, Met Office Chief Meteorologist
Alongside the wetter forecast, autumn temperatures are projected to stay above average. This follows the provisional declaration of summer 2026 as the hottest on record in the UK, marked by five widespread heatwaves and 40 days where temperatures surpassed 30C (86F). While this warming trend aligns with broader global climate shifts, uncommonly high sea surface temperatures surrounding the UK are playing a pivotal role. Consecutive marine heatwaves since late spring have pushed regional sea surface temperatures up to 5C above normal, which in turn helps sustain elevated land temperatures.
El Niño represents a periodic warming of equatorial Pacific waters that disrupts global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. While El Niño years historically elevate the probability of cold and snowy late-winter conditions across north-west Europe, the UK's geographical placement at the edge of the Atlantic introduces complex meteorological variables. Other prevailing atmospheric influences often block the cold northerly or easterly winds required for heavy snow; historical records since 1900 show that only a single post-El Niño winter—specifically 1982/83—experienced widespread disruptive snow across the country.
Source: BBC Science & Environment
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