Canadian Trips to U.S. Rise for Sixth Month but Below 2024
Statistics Canada reports U.S. return trips rose 6.8% in September, but car travel remains 31.1% below 2024 levels, highlighting a low-base rebound.
Stock photo for illustration only, not from the actual event
- Canadian return trips from the U.S. rose 6.8% in September, marking six straight months of year-over-year growth.
- Car travel remained 31.1% lower than September 2024, while air travel was down 18.7%.
- Business travel outperformed leisure, with Corporate Traveller reporting cross-border air bookings up 3.9% year-to-date.
- A Leger survey showed 60% of Canadian adults are less open to U.S. travel than at any point in the past year.
Travel volume from Canada to the United States has continued its upward trajectory, yet climbing out of an unusually soft baseline from the previous year is far from achieving a full return to normal conditions. The ongoing monthly growth represents a recovery driven heavily by a low starting point rather than true structural normalization.
According to figures released on Tuesday by Statistics Canada, return trips by Canadian residents coming back from the U.S. increased by 6.8% in September. This marks the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth, with return trips by car and by air increasing by 5.6% and 11.6% respectively.
However, when measured against September 2024 levels, the recovery gap remains substantial. Return trips by car in September were still 31.1% lower than the same month in 2024, while air travel return trips experienced an 18.7% decline, indicating that overall volumes continue to lag behind pre-downturn benchmarks.
Regional data across North America reinforces this pattern. Crossings in Northern New England rose 6% year-over-year but stayed 23% below 2024 levels, while southbound vehicle volume in Whatcom County, Washington, climbed 3% yet remained 27% below September 2024. Meanwhile, Canadian arrivals in Hawaii increased by 0.6% but hovered 4% below 2024 marks.
Analyzing consecutive months of tourism growth requires caution regarding baseline effects. Because 2025 proved to be an exceptionally soft year for cross-border movement between Canada and the U.S., current positive growth percentages reflect a rebound from a severely depressed starting point. Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic hurdles continue to weigh heavily on leisure travel, causing it to lag behind corporate demand.
Consumer sentiment data further complicates the narrative. A survey conducted by Leger among 1,538 Canadian adults revealed that 60% of respondents felt less open to traveling to the U.S. than at any point over the past year. Furthermore, 43% stated that resolving ongoing trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. would not alter their likelihood of visiting.
Despite soft sentiment, marginal indicators across commercial channels show resilience. FlightHub reported that U.S. search demand grew 15% year-over-year despite a 17% jump in airfares. Flight Centre Canada noted U.S. leisure air bookings rose 5.7%, while Corporate Traveller Canada observed cross-border air bookings climbing 2.2% in September and 3.9% year-to-date compared to 2024.
Source: Skift
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